Technical Analysis

158 GW of storage installed worldwide by 2026: the structural leap confirmed by BloombergNEF

📅 July 2026

⏱ Reading time: 6 minutes

🎯 For installers, EPCs and PV distributors

On 11 May 2026, BloombergNEF published the Energy Storage Outlook 1H 2026: an estimated 158 GW / 459 GWh for 2026, up 41 per cent on 2025. Energy storage is structurally entering the era of 100 GW per year. This figure alters the dynamics of the price list and the pressure on the supply chain, even for those selling in peripheral markets such as Italy.

What you will find in this article

BloombergNEF figures: what happened in 2025 and what is forecast for 2026

BloombergNEF’s Energy Storage Outlook 1H 2026, published on 11 May 2026, marked a turning point: in 2025, the world installed 112 GW of non-pumped storage in a single year, surpassing the psychological threshold of 100 GW. pv magazine International and ESS News have covered the report. BNEF estimates 158 GW / 459 GWh in 2026, with annual increases set to take the market beyond 200 GW per year by the end of the decade.

Anno	Storage installato (GW)	Storage installato (GWh)	Variazione anno su anno
2025 (consuntivo)	112 GW	circa 320 GWh	—
2026 (stima BNEF)	158 GW	459 GWh	+41%
Fine decennio (traiettoria)	oltre 200 GW/anno	oltre 600 GWh/anno	Espansione continua

The long-term outlook is equally clear: the global storage market will grow 15-fold by 2030 compared to 2024 levels, according to BNEF estimates.

The figure changing the price list: a 4:1 solar-to-storage ratio.

The most relevant metric for those selling systems is not the absolute figure, but the solar-to-storage ratio: how many kWh of storage capacity are installed for every kWp of photovoltaics.According to BloombergNEF, the ratio dropped to 4:1 in 2026, down from 6:1 in 2025 and 56:1 in 2016. In other words: ten years ago, 56 kWp of solar capacity was required to generate demand for 1 kWh of battery storage; today, just 4 kWp suffices.

📊 The implication for sellers

Stand-alone PV is facing commercial obsolescence in more mature markets. “Solar quotes” and “storage quotes” are merging into a single conversation about the system as a whole. Those who continue to sell only modules are selling only half the value on the table. BNEF projects that long-duration storage systems (over 6 hours) will see a fourfold increase in annual additions by 2026, and that commercial installations will surpass residential ones by 2030.

Market concentration: the US and China account for 70%.

BNEF’s 2025 data reveals a massive concentration in two countries: China, with 61.1 GW / 173.1 GWh installed (up 54% year-on-year), and the USA, with 18 GW / 54.6 GWh (up 46%). Together, these two nations accounted for approximately 70% of new global installations. Europe—viewed as a single bloc—ranks third in importance, yet it comprises a collection of national markets characterized by widely varying regulatory and tariff dynamics.

For companies distributing BESS in Italy or working with Italian installers, the issue is structural: the supply chains of Tier 1 manufacturers (CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, REPT, Sungrow ESS, Huawei FusionSolar) are scaled to meet Chinese and US demand, not European requirements. When the global market expands from 112 GW to 158 GW in a single year, production lines become fully committed to utility-scale contracts signed in Asia and the US, leaving Europe as a lower-priority customer. In practical terms, this means longer lead times and less room for price negotiation compared to 2024–2025.

Italy: a secondary market riding a global wave

In this context, Italy is a secondary market in terms of absolute size. The stated target of **15 GW of BESS capacity by 2030** (comprising 11 GW of standalone and 4 GW of co-located systems, according to Rabobank’s analysis of Italy’s BESS strategy) translates to approximately 9 GW of new capacity to be added to the 7.3 GW cumulative total expected by the end of 2025 (based on Italia Solare data). This implies an average deployment rate of roughly 1.3–2 GW per year over the next 4–5 years—an order of magnitude lower than the pace seen in countries like Germany, Spain, or the UK.

The **MACSE** (the Forward Storage Market managed by Terna) serves as the structural “pull” mechanism through which Italy aims to bridge this gap, and BloombergNEF explicitly cites it as one of the mechanisms driving the European utility-scale sector. However, Italy’s pace lags behind the global trend, and the commercial reality is that **companies distributing BESS here compete for the same supply chain as China, the United States, emerging Asia, and the Middle East**. Without direct agreements with manufacturers, they find themselves at the back of the queue.

The three dynamics for redefining your positioning

1. PV+BESS integration in the commercial price list

When the solar-to-storage ratio drops to 4:1, the quote presented to the customer today differs structurally from one from three years ago. Storage, the hybrid inverter, and the EMS become the primary cost components, while the share of the total cost accounted for by modules decreases. Selling “kWp of solar” without storage in 2026 means proposing a system that the global market is moving past as a technical and economic standard.

2. Long-duration storage as the next frontier

BNEF projects that long-duration energy storage (six hours or more) capacity will double annually in 2026, rising from 1 GW to 2 GW. For Italian installers and distributors, the medium-to-large C&I segment is where long-duration storage is finding its first economically viable applications—such as in continuous-process industries, data centers, and energy communities with distributed self-consumption. Building technical and commercial expertise in this segment now means positioning oneself advantageously before the market window becomes saturated.

3. Commercial batteries to overtake residential ones by 2030

In its long-term outlook, BNEF projects that commercial battery installations will surpass residential ones by 2030, driven by rising attachment rates (the proportion of solar systems paired with a battery). This sends a clear signal to businesses fine-tuning their strategies: future demand lies in the C&I sector, not in the residential B2C market. The most profitable sales channel for BESS is wholesalers serving installers who work on industrial facilities, retail sites, logistics centers, and agricultural operations—rather than shopping malls.

What is changing in the European supply chain

The BNEF trajectory has concrete implications for supply. Buyers in Italy should take the following four factors into account for the next 24 months:

Structurally longer lead times: With global demand up 41%, Chinese Tier 1 manufacturers are shifting production lines to utility-scale contracts signed in Asia and the US. Delivery times of 60–90 days seen in 2024 are drifting toward 120–180 days.
Less negotiable unit prices: Price floors are determined by raw material costs (lithium, nickel, manganese, separators), which have stopped falling and begun to stabilize at levels higher than those seen in 2024.
Pressure on PCS (storage inverters): The EU ban on Chinese PCS in funded projects is shifting demand toward SMA, Ingeteam, and Power Electronics, further extending lead times for the utility-scale segment.
Concentration of bargaining power: CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, and other Tier 1 manufacturers with growing backlogs are raising the volume thresholds required to secure direct supply agreements.

How PVclick supports the BESS pivot

For those selling systems in Italy, **direct importing** from Tier 1 manufacturers with Italian teams is the most robust mechanism for accessing the BESS supply chain via volume agreements and locked-in pricing for the 2026–2028 construction windows. PVclick supports installers, distributors, and EPCs with storage solutions—ranging from compact residential systems to commercial and industrial (C&I) BESS—leveraging the Fox ESS portfolio for the residential and scalable C&I segments, alongside direct access to other Tier 1 manufacturers for utility-scale projects.

PVclick’s analysis of the 2026 market had already anticipated this scenario: the convergence of solar and storage is structural rather than sporadic, and those who fail to secure their supply chain now will find themselves forced to make spot purchases in a global market entering the 200 GW/year era.

The three actions to close immediately

Rebalance the product portfolio by shifting the commercial focus from standalone solar quotes to integrated solar-plus-BESS quotes, with the solar-to-storage ratio calibrated to new global averages
Pre-allocate BESS supplies through direct volume agreements with Tier 1 suppliers for the 2026–2028 installation windows, before the global backlog drives up lead times and unit prices
Build expertise in long-duration storage and medium-to-large C&I projects, where the next wave of demand is projected to concentrate, according to BNEF forecasts

Do you need to plan BESS procurement for 2026–2028 projects?

PVclick supports installers, distributors, and EPCs with direct imports from Tier 1 manufacturers, offering volume-based agreements and delivery schedules aligned with project timelines. Quotes based on actual volumes, with an Italian team handling logistics and customs.

158 GW of storage by 2026 (BNEF): the global structural leap